Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
