Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
